Due to pandemic effection, optical transport system demand freezes in a short period. however, based on market report from Dell’Oro Group, Optical Transport System venders will enjoy revenue increase in the next five years, the 800G DWDM system will lead the way, the sales revenue will increase from $15 billions at 2019, and will approaches $18 billion over the next five years
Even though, economic recession will cause optical transport system market to contract, however due to bandwidth demand increasing, such as working at home, remote-learning requirements. It is the market trigger for the next couple of years.
A desire for 800-Gbps capabilities will spur DWDM technology spending, according to the report. Dell’Oro predicts 30% of DWDM shipments will be 800G capable by 2024. However, not all of these capabilities will be used fully right away; Dell’Oro says that more than half of 800G line cards sold in 2024 will operate at 400 Gbps. Looking forward, the market research firm expects 1.2 Tbps to be the next wavelength transmission rate. Such technology should reach the market in 2023 or 2024 – more likely the latter, Dell’Oro believes.
Disaggregated WDM transponders also should prove a popular technology, with unit sales growing at a double-digit percentage rate annually during the forecast period.
However, not every breeze over the next five years will be a tailwind, Dell’Oro points out. The arrival of 400ZR optical modules will promote IP over DWDM (IPoDWDM) architectures, wherein network operators will plug optical modules directly into router ports, bypassing the need for optical line systems. This trend also leads Dell’Oro analysts to predict the hot data center interconnect platform space will finally show signs of cooling within the next five years.
Dell’Oro’s Optical Transport 5-Year Forecast Report provides an overview of the optical transport market and includes tables covering manufacturers’ revenue, average selling prices, unit shipments, and wavelength shipments (by speed up to 1.2 Tbps). The report tracks DWDM long-haul, WDM metro, multiservice multiplexers (SONET/SDH), optical switches, optical packet platforms, data center interconnect (metro and long haul), and disaggregated WDM technology.
Source from Dell’Oro Report